Zheng Yongnian: China's economic growth may even exceed 5%

China set its annual growth target of GDP at around 5%, when Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered the government work report at the opening ceremony of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5.

In a recent interview with GDToday, Zheng Yongnian, Chair of the Academy Committee, Institute of Public Policy, South China University of Technology, underlined that at this stage we should be more determined and confident of the Chinese economy amid the relatively adverse international context.    

5% growth requires concerted efforts of central and local governments  

According to Zheng, the necessity of around 5% growth should be implemented from two aspects: the central government level and the local government level.    

Statistics showed that China's GDP hit 134.9 trillion yuan in 2024, while the growth of GDP was 5%. The status quo in China, according to him, is the combination of an efficient market and an active government.  

"At present, high-quality development is the absolute principle. It needs to demonstrate the central government's role in promoting the economy," he added.

For local governments, a 5% growth target implies KPIs in the economic domain of the central government's uation.

"Without such a goal, many local governments may not know which direction to go. With this goal, they will mobilize some factors of production towards the goal, make progress, and achieve it," Zheng pointed out.      

5% growth is not a tough target for China's current economy      

He also stated that it is not that demanding given the status quo of the Chinese economy to reach around a 5% growth target. The claim is largely attributed to the resilience of China's economy and its transition from middle-technology to high-technology.  

For all concerns about the adverse global trend currently, as the US universal tariffs have no limits imposing on China, Mexico, Canada, and Europe, Zheng noted that at this stage, China should be more determined and confident.

The US has been messing with China for eight years, since Donald Trump's first term as the US president from 2016 to 2020, and Joe Biden for four years. Based on Zheng's observation, the Chinese economy has fully shown its resilience.

"We still have to move forward and be resilient. We still have room (for growth)," he added.

According to Zheng, China's current GDP per capita is US$13,000, while the US per capita is over US$50,000. It is not certain how far high-income economies can reach, according to him. There is still quite a bit of room for China's economic growth.  

To attract foreign investment, China has opened up to foreign investment in sectors such as telecommunication, healthcare, and education, including allowing the establishment of wholly foreign-owned hospitals in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.  

In 2024, China's total goods trade reached 43.85 trillion yuan, keeping the largest position in goods trade for 8 consecutive years. Its services trade amounted to a record high of 7.5 trillion yuan, in terms of US dollars, exceeding USD 1 trillion for the first time.

Zheng Yongnian believes that a pivotal prerequisite for China to attract foreign investment is the revival of Chinese private enterprises.

According to him, due to the extensive cooperation between foreign capital and China's private sector, the degree of foreign capital's trust in China largely hinges on the development of China's private firms.

The high-profile private enterprise symposium held in mid-February in Beijing can give foreign investors confidence despite all Chinese private entrepreneurs as participants.  

Also, Zheng underscored technology, the domain Chinese people are most concerned about.

China has been reforming and opening up for decades. In the early days, there was the application and diffusion of Western technology. There was a doubt whether the West's "decoupling" would beat Chinese technology enterprises to death.

Now Chinese people don't have to worry, as Zheng said. Promising tech firms such as the "Six Little Dragons" in Hangzhou and also Manus, a Chinese AI agent, have sprung up in the year 2025.

"China has developed from middle-technology to high-technology. So this will pull the incomes moving from middle income to high income. So in terms of (economic) rhythm, I think the growth may exceed 5% a bit," he finalized.    

Reporter | Zhang Ruijun

Video | Liang Zijian

Poster | Lai Meiya    

Script | Zhang Ruijun  

Editor | Ouyang Yan, Yuan Zixiang, James, Shen He